How loop gain works: knowing when an AI agent loop has converged

Stopping an AI agent loop is a signal-processing problem. Most teams treat it as a prompt-engineering one — tune the instructions, set max_iterations=5, hope — and that’s exactly why it doesn’t work. You can’t fix a control problem with a better prompt.

Here’s the control problem. Your agent runs a verify-revise loop. Each iteration produces an output and some measure of how wrong it still is. That measure, over iterations, is a time series — a noisy signal. “Should the loop keep going?” is a question about that signal: is the error trending down, flat, or blowing up, and is that trend real or just noise? max_iterations answers a different question entirely — “have we done this N times yet?” — which is why it stops good loops early and lets bad ones run to the cap.

This post is how LoopGain answers the real question. It’s an open-source (Apache-2.0) library, so none of this is a black box — but the math is worth understanding even if you never read the source.

One naming note, since they look alike: loop gain (lowercase) is the control-theory quantity this post is about; LoopGain (the library) is named after it. The metric is the interesting part — LoopGain just computes it and acts on it.

The one number you have to provide: the error signal

LoopGain doesn’t define correctness for you. Each iteration, you hand it a single number — the error signal — that says how wrong the current output is:

• failing unit tests (count of failures),
• schema violations (count),
• an LLM-judge’s distance from the target,
• retrieval miss count, lint errors, whatever “wrong” means for your loop.

state = lg.observe(errors, output)   # errors: a number, or a list whose length is the magnitude

Everything below operates on the sequence of those numbers. If you can’t produce an error signal, LoopGain has nothing to read — that’s the one hard requirement, and we’ll come back to it.

Loop gain: the per-step ratio, and why it’s not enough alone

The namesake quantity is loop gain, written $A\beta$, from the Barkhausen stability criterion in control engineering. It’s the factor by which the error changes from one iteration to the next:

$A\beta < 1$ means the error shrank — the loop is improving. $A\beta \geq 1$ means it held or grew — the loop is stuck or making things worse. That’s the whole intuition, and if loops were noiseless you could stop right there: watch $A\beta$, stop when it crosses 1.

Loops are not noiseless. A single $\frac{E_n}{E_{n-1}}$ ratio bounces around — one lucky iteration drops the error, the next recovers it, and the instantaneous ratio swings wildly even when the underlying trend is a clean decline. Act on one ratio and you’ll stop on noise. So LoopGain doesn’t act on one ratio. It reads the whole trajectory.

Step 1: work in log space

Barkhausen says $E_n = A\beta \cdot E_{n-1}$ — error decays (or grows) geometrically. Take the log of both sides and a geometric trend becomes a straight line:

So LoopGain transforms the error history to $\log_{10}(E)$. Now “is this loop converging?” becomes “does this line slope down?” — and a slope is something you can fit and test instead of eyeball.

Step 2: fit the trend, then test whether it’s real

LoopGain fits an ordinary least-squares line to $\log_{10}(E)$ versus iteration. The slope of that line is the geometric-average $\log A\beta$ across the whole loop — a far more stable estimate than the last single ratio.

But a downward slope on five noisy points might be chance. So LoopGain runs a two-sided t-test on the slope and gets a p-value. A trend only counts as real when $p < 0.05$ — the same significance bar you’d use anywhere else. This is the difference between “the error happened to drop” and “the error is significantly decreasing.” It’s pure stdlib — a closed-form OLS slope and a Student-t p-value, no SciPy, no model.

Step 3: measure the wobble

A loop can have a flat trend and still be useless — bouncing between two answers, never settling. LoopGain detrends the log-error (subtracts the fitted line) and takes the standard deviation of the residuals. High residual scatter with a flat slope is the signature of oscillation: lots of motion, no progress.

The decision: five named states

From three features — the cumulative reduction $E_{\text{current}}/E_{\text{first}}$, the fitted slope and its significance, and the oscillation std — LoopGain classifies the loop’s current state. The rule, in plain form:

The “stop, we’re done” case is TARGET_MET — a short-circuit that fires the moment your error signal hits its target, before any trajectory math runs. FAST_CONVERGE is the opposite of done: the error has dropped a lot and is still dropping, so the loop keeps going (and LoopGain predicts the ETA to target). A loop only stops on a healthy trajectory when it actually reaches the target; it stops early when the trajectory turns bad — OSCILLATING / DIVERGING — or goes flat (STALLING).

The thresholds aren’t tuned to make a demo look good — they’re pre-registered and derived from convention: a one-decade (90%) reduction is the textbook step-response settling criterion; $p < 0.05$ is standard significance; the oscillation cutoff corresponds to roughly a ±2× ripple, an underdamped $Q \approx 3$ response. You can override them, but the defaults come from control theory and statistics, not from fitting the benchmark.

Two things the trajectory buys you for free

Once you’re fitting a log-trend, two useful quantities fall out.

ETA. If the loop is converging toward a target error $E_{\text{target}}$, the iterations remaining is a closed-form Barkhausen prediction:

So LoopGain can tell you “about 3 more iterations” instead of just “still going.” (It returns nothing when the prediction is undefined — no target, or a non-converging gain — rather than guessing.)

Gain margin. Borrowed straight from control engineering: $\text{GM} = 1 / \max(A\beta_{\text{smooth}})$. Greater than 1 means the loop never crossed into instability; the larger, the more headroom it had. It’s a one-number summary of how close the whole loop came to blowing up.

Best-so-far rollback

When the loop stops on OSCILLATING or DIVERGING, the last output is — by definition — not the best one; it’s the degraded one. So LoopGain keeps the output associated with the lowest error it ever saw and hands that back:

answer = lg.result.best_output   # the iteration that worked, not the last one

This is the part that turns “stop early to save money” into “stop early and return a better answer,” because on a diverging loop the last iteration is often worse than one you passed three steps ago.

Where this doesn’t work — honestly

The math has hard edges, and you should know them before you reach for it:

• Single-pass agents get nothing. One model call, no revise step, no trajectory. There’s nothing to fit.
• No error signal, no LoopGain. If you can’t put a number on how wrong an output is, none of the above runs. The quality of the control is bounded by the quality of your error signal.
• It needs a few iterations. With one or two points the slope has no degrees of freedom to test — the significance machinery can’t engage, and the cap is doing the real work.
• Gradual convergence is the rare trajectory in practice. In our 2,000-trial benchmark, the CONVERGING and OSCILLATING states fired on well under 1% of iterations — modern LLMs tend to one-shot or stall, not glide down over many steps or thrash between answers. The states LoopGain earns its keep on are the ones that quietly burn budget: STALLING (the loop pinned, going nowhere — 21% of iterations) and DIVERGING, caught before the loop walks past its best answer.

None of this is hidden in the library. It’s a few hundred lines of stdlib Python under Apache-2.0 — read the classifier, disagree with a threshold, open an issue. The point isn’t that loop gain is magic. It’s that “when is this loop done?” has an answer grounded in a century of control theory, and max_iterations isn’t it.

LoopGain is pip install loopgain, Apache-2.0. The math here lives in the loopgain.classifier module; the benchmark behind the “rare trajectory” claim is open.